Realtor 님들 어디에?
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2005년 UCLA Anderson Forecast 를 보면 주택경기 하락을 예측 했었습니다. (물론 여기 부동산 융자 코너에서도 많은 분들이 우려 했었구요)
그렇지만 비슷한 시기에 NAR (National Association of Realtor) 는 결과적으로 보면 틀린 예측을 했었지요.
특히 Appleton-Young (CAR chief economist) 라는 여자는 매번 틀린 예측을 합니다. 2000년에 2001년을 예측할때도 그랬고(10% price growth), 2005년에 2006년을 예측할때도 그랬습니다 (average 10%). 그러다 막상 2006년 하락이 시작 되니까 자기네 예측을 매번 조금씩 (?) 수정하더군요.
http://realtytimes.com/rtcpages/20050927_californiagrowth.htm
Last week, during CAR's Centennial REALTOR Expo in San Diego to celebrate the association's 100th year, CAR released its annual forecast calling for the median home price to increase 10 percent to a record $575,500 in 2006 as sales fall 2 percent compared to 2005.
CAR economists say the state's perpetual supply-demand imbalance will continue to drive the market, but at a moderated level next year as the price of homes push more buyers out of the market.
Each year ends in California with an approximate 50,000 shortfall in housing units, based on the number of new households (250,000) and the number of new housing units constructed (an estimated 200,000 this year), CAR says.
"Declining affordability will constrain sales in 2006 at a greater rate than we've previously experienced, especially in markets where there are higher price points compared with the state as a whole," said CAR vice president of chief economist Leslie Appleton-Young.
Appleton-Young indicated the 10 percent price growth rate is a statewide average forecast. Other areas could be hit harder.
"Not all areas of the state will continue to experience the unprecedented double-digit median price increases of the past five years. Some high-cost areas, especially those in the more costly coastal regions, face a potential leveling off of median price gains compared with the 10 percent gain we expect for the state as a whole," she said.
아우님이 2007-09-05 23:12:15에 쓰신글
>California 는 유입인구가 많고 주택수요 대비 공급이 부족하여 집값이 떨어질수 없다고 우기시던 Realtor 님들은 지금 어디에?
>하루에 수백명씩 San Francisco 공항을 통해 이민자들이 들어오고 그사람들 대부분 최소한 밀리언 달러들을 갖고 들어오니까 집값이 떨어진다는건 불가능 하다고 하시던 Realtor 분은 지금도 그생각에 변함이 없으신지요?
>
그렇지만 비슷한 시기에 NAR (National Association of Realtor) 는 결과적으로 보면 틀린 예측을 했었지요.
특히 Appleton-Young (CAR chief economist) 라는 여자는 매번 틀린 예측을 합니다. 2000년에 2001년을 예측할때도 그랬고(10% price growth), 2005년에 2006년을 예측할때도 그랬습니다 (average 10%). 그러다 막상 2006년 하락이 시작 되니까 자기네 예측을 매번 조금씩 (?) 수정하더군요.
http://realtytimes.com/rtcpages/20050927_californiagrowth.htm
Last week, during CAR's Centennial REALTOR Expo in San Diego to celebrate the association's 100th year, CAR released its annual forecast calling for the median home price to increase 10 percent to a record $575,500 in 2006 as sales fall 2 percent compared to 2005.
CAR economists say the state's perpetual supply-demand imbalance will continue to drive the market, but at a moderated level next year as the price of homes push more buyers out of the market.
Each year ends in California with an approximate 50,000 shortfall in housing units, based on the number of new households (250,000) and the number of new housing units constructed (an estimated 200,000 this year), CAR says.
"Declining affordability will constrain sales in 2006 at a greater rate than we've previously experienced, especially in markets where there are higher price points compared with the state as a whole," said CAR vice president of chief economist Leslie Appleton-Young.
Appleton-Young indicated the 10 percent price growth rate is a statewide average forecast. Other areas could be hit harder.
"Not all areas of the state will continue to experience the unprecedented double-digit median price increases of the past five years. Some high-cost areas, especially those in the more costly coastal regions, face a potential leveling off of median price gains compared with the 10 percent gain we expect for the state as a whole," she said.
아우님이 2007-09-05 23:12:15에 쓰신글
>California 는 유입인구가 많고 주택수요 대비 공급이 부족하여 집값이 떨어질수 없다고 우기시던 Realtor 님들은 지금 어디에?
>하루에 수백명씩 San Francisco 공항을 통해 이민자들이 들어오고 그사람들 대부분 최소한 밀리언 달러들을 갖고 들어오니까 집값이 떨어진다는건 불가능 하다고 하시던 Realtor 분은 지금도 그생각에 변함이 없으신지요?
>
작성일2007-09-06 16:45
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