• 수정
• 삭제
• 답변
• 글쓰기

1월말 정도에는 이자율이 오를 것이라고 생각했었는데 요즈음 나온 발표를 보닌까 이자율이 올 해까지 현상유지 할 것 같네요.

http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/business/business-usa-economy-forecast-nabe.html
February 26, 2007
U.S. Economy Moving to "Sustainable Growth": NABE
By REUTERS
Filed at 0:06 a.m. ET

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. economy appears to be getting on a sustainable growth path with GDP expected to grow 2.8 percent in 2007, and the risks of inflation are slightly higher than those of an economic slowdown, according to a survey of economists released on Monday.

Economists surveyed for the National Association for Business Economics forecast predicted that warm weather conditions that boosted economic activity late last year would not cut into growth in 2007.

While the group said it believes the Federal Reserve will keep the benchmark federal funds rate unchanged at 5.25 percent, the panel of economists said they see a pickup of inflation as a slightly larger macroeconomic risk than a slowdown in growth.

``While temperatures abruptly returned to seasonal norms, the NABE forecast panel sees very limited economic 'payback' for the strength we recorded in December,'' NABE President Carl Tannenbaum said.

The panel held that a weakened housing market would be the biggest dampening force on growth this year.

On the jobs front, the panel forecast moderate job growth this year.

``The unemployment rate is forecast to average 4.7 percent this year, a tad higher than January's 4.6 percent level, but also similar to the Federal Reserve's current outlook,'' the group wrote.

Productivity, or worker output per hour, this year is expected to advance 2.0 percent in 2007, partially offsetting increases in labor compensation and unit labor costs.

Inflation is expected to stabilize somewhat during the year. Lower energy prices, the panel forecast, would bring overall inflation down to less than 2.0 percent during the year -- the lowest in five years.

But core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, is expected to hold steady at 2.3 percent over the course of the year, with that rate persisting through 2008.

While the group expects the Fed to keep interest rates on hold throughout 2007, they do expect the central bank to carry out a slight rate cut in 2008 to 5 percent.

Real personal consumption expenditures are expected to advance 3.2 percent in 2007, up from a previous forecast of 2.8 percent. But profit growth will moderate to a pace more in line with overall economic activity.

``After soaring by an estimated 19 percent last year, after-tax profits are projected to expand only a modest 5 percent in 2007,'' NABE wrote.

http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/2007-02-26-greenspan_x.htm?csp=34

Greenspan: Recession 'possible' by end of year
Updated 2/26/2007 10:17 AM ET
WASHINGTON (AP) — Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said Monday it is "possible" the U.S. economy might fall into recession by the end of the year.
He said the U.S. economy has been expanding since 2001 and that there are signs the current economic cycle is coming to an end.

WHO CARES? Is Greenspan still worth listening to?

"When you get this far away from a recession, invariably forces build up for the next recession, and indeed we are beginning to see that sign," Greenspan said via satellite link to a business conference in Hong Kong. "For example in the U.S., profit margins ... have begun to stabilize, which is an early sign we are in the later stages of a cycle."

"While, yes, it is possible we can get a recession in the latter months of 2007, most forecasters are not making that judgment and indeed are projecting forward into 2008 ... with some slowdown," he said.

Greenspan said that while it would be "very precarious" to try to forecast that far into the future, he could not rule out the possibility of a recession late this year.

Greenspan also said he has seen no economic spillover effects from the slowdown in the U.S. housing market.

"We are now well into the contraction period and so far we have not had any major, significant spillover effects on the American economy from the contraction in housing," he said.

ECONOMISTS: Worst risk to market? Subprime mortgages

The U.S. economy grew at a surprisingly strong 3.5% rate in the fourth quarter of 2006, up from a 2% rate in the third quarter. A survey released Monday by the National Association for Business Economics showed that experts predict economic growth of 2.7% this year, the slowest rate since a 1.6% rise in 2002.

Greenspan also warned that the U.S. budget deficit, which for 2006 fell to $247.7 billion, the lowest in four years, remains a concern.

"The American budget deficit is clearly a very significant concern for all of us that are trying to evaluate both the American economy's immediate future and that of the rest of the world," he said via satellite at the VeryGC Global Business Insights 2007 Conference.