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작년말 부터 두번 올린적이 있는데 내용 Update 되었네요. 아주 재미있습니다..
http://patrick.net/housing/crash.html

25. "My dad made money on his house, and it will work for me too."
FALSE. Your dad bought his house when houses were cheap compared to salaries, maybe 3 or 4 times annual salaries. Go ask him. Things are different now. Here is a chart of median house price vs median income in Palo Alto:
Year Median House Price Median Income Multiple
1980 148900 24743 6.0
1990 457800 55333 8.3
2000 910000 90377 10.0

Most bankers use a multiple of 3 as a "safe" price to income ratio. We are well beyond the danger zone, into the twilight zone. Another rule of thumb is that a fair house price is 125 times the monthly rent. If a house rents for $2000 per month, then a fair price is $250,000.

18. "The house down the street sold for 25% over asking, and that proves the market is still hot."
FALSE. Realtors?try to create the false impression of a hot market by deliberately "underpricing" a house. Say a seller's agent knows that house will probably go for $500,000. He places ads asking $400,000 instead. (Bait-and-switch is illegal when selling toasters, but apparently not when selling houses.) The goal is to first of all prevent buyers from knowing what a realistic price is, and secondly to get buyers to blindly bid against each other. There are four players in this game and three of them are against the buyer: the seller, the seller's agent, and the buyer's agent. Yes, the buyer's own agent works against the buyer, because there is no commission if there is no sale. There's a saying in Las Vegas: "There's a patsy in every game, and if you don't know who the patsy is, you're it."
If you want to prove your agent is not on your side, ask to see houses "for sale by owner" or houses listed by discount brokers.


20. "The MLS proves things are great."
FALSE. All sorts of funny things happen in the MLS (Multiple Listing Service, a private database controlled by real estate agents). For example, if a house just doesn't sell, Realtors?can remove its record in the MLS so that you cannot see that it failed to sell. Then the house comes back on the market at a lower price, and unsuspecting buyers think it's on the market for the first time. Their Realtor?can "prove" it's a new listing by showing the MLS record to the buyer: "See, here's the listing date, just came on the market. Better hurry and buy it, this one is hot."

22. "Rich Chinese (or Europeans, or Arabs) are driving up housing prices."
FALSE. The percentage of US houses bought by rich foreigners for investment is tiny. Furthermore, American housing is clearly a bad investment at this point. Rich foreign investors are not dumb enough to buy into a badly overpriced market, but your broker is hoping that you are.