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현제 Market 이  Slow 한 지점에서 누가 제일 크게 Burn 하는가는
말할 필요도 없이 욕심 내어 집이나 콘도 등등에 무리하게 일년에 몇채씩 투자한분들입니다.
특히 근레 일년전에 무조건 묻지마 투자 한 분들은 앞으로 2-3년을 버티지 못하면
그동안 모았돈 돈들을 다 날릴수가 있지요

또 하나는 막차을 타신 분들인데..이분들이 처음 집을 장만했건 현재 집을 팔고
큰 집을 무리해서 산 분들이 위험한 처지에 있는데..집은 언제 구입했건 하시는 사업이 잘 안되을 때나 직장에서 명태을  당하시면 막차을 타신분들이 훨씬 위험한 처지에 있다고 볼수 있습니다. 왜야하면 집 Payment 가 장난이 아니기 때문이죠. 옛적에 구입했으면 Equity 가 왜만큼 있었서 시간을 벌수가 있겠지만 그럴지 못한 분들은  Payment 하기가 벅차서 다른 방도가 없으면 빨리 down size  하는것도 좋을듯 합니다.

현재 집을 한 두채 갖고 계시는 분들은 탄탄한 직업이나 자영업을 하시는 분들은 크ㅔ게 걱정을 안하셔도 된다고 봅니다. 왜야하면 It's only paper money 이기 때문입니다. 서류상의 집값이 오르고 내리고 했지 현실적으로 적자나 이익을 낸것이 아니기 때문입니다.  서류상의 값이 오르고 내린것뿐이기 때문에 실직적으로 집을 파셔을 때에 이익이나 손해을 볼수 가 있지요. 다시 말씀드려서 현재 부동산이 위축되어서 걱정을 많이 하고 계시는 분들이 많은데.....Payment 만 잘하고 계시면 언제가는 다시 올라가는것이 부동산입니다. 이건 제말이 아니고 역사가 증명하는 일이니 지금 당장 팔 실 것이 아니면 크게 걱정을 하지 않아도 된다고 봅니다. 느긋하게 기다리시면 다시 상승세을 타는것이 이치입니다. 현재 현금을 왜만하면 많이 보유해서 또 시기에 맞게 투자 하면 좋을듯합니다. 항상 하늘이 무너져도 다시 말씀 드려서 한쪽이 무너지면 다른 한쪽은 그 반대 형상이 현성되므로 예상을 넘은 부을 쌓을수도 있습니다. 그러기 위해서는 세상 돌아 가는 걸 항상 주시하시고 적절한 시기에 투자 할 수 있도록 준비 가 필요합니다. (준비라는 건 총알=Cash)  말합니다.

현재 이 밑글은 CNN  에서 미국 전체을 예을 들어서 쓴글이기 때문에 맞은 말도 있겠지만 북가주의 특정한 지역에서는 맞지 않은 글이 될수도 있습니다. 특히 실리콘 밸리나  학군이 좋은 지역에서는........

집값님이 2006-05-04 22:54:33에 쓰신글
>http://money.cnn.com/2006/05/03/news/economy/realestateguide_3_fortune/index.htm
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>Who will be hurt most?
>During the boom, condos were catnip for would-be tycoons. Now investors are bolting, developers are slashing prices, and unsold units are piling up.
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>NEW YORK (FORTUNE) - The most troubled sector of the housing market, the one that will fall first and fastest, is the condominium market. Typically cheaper than houses and easier to buy, sell or rent out, condos are catnip for investors.
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>"I estimate that 80 percent of the sales in Miami went to investors at the peak of the market," says Lewis Goodkin, a consultant to condo developers. The problem is that investors tend to bolt when trouble looms.
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>Gary Bahadur, 32, who owns a computer networking company in Los Angeles, bought six condos in California over the past few years. Now he's putting them all up for sale.
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>"I'm getting out of California because it's topped out," he says, "The prices are so high that investors can no longer buy a condo and rent it to cover the mortgage."
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>Yet even as speculators flee, developers keep throwing up condos at a breakneck pace, in part because if they have already bought the land and poured the foundation, they have no choice but to finish the project.
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>Unsold condos are piling up. In the Miami area 25,000 new units are under construction, and another 25,000 are approved. Yet the Miami market absorbed only 10,500 new condos in the past decade. (See a gallery of more markets in trouble.)
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>Tanya Wagner, a South African who worked as a food and beverage manager at the Four Seasons hotel, is caught in the squeeze. She paid $335,000 for a two-bedroom condo when she moved to Miami in 2004. Now she wants to start her own consulting business in Europe. In November she put her unit on the market for $485,000, the price that apartments in her building had sold for a few months earlier.
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>But Wagner missed the peak. She's now dropped her price to $415,000, and she still hasn't had an offer. Holding the unit and renting it out doesn't appeal to her. "My belief is that prices will drop even more," she says.
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>Builders are in a bind
>When two-bedroom condos get discounted from $350,000 to $300,000, developers in the neighborhood drop their prices on $400,000 starter homes.
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>Builders don't have the luxury of waiting out a slump; they need to sell for what they can get. At first they hold the line on base prices by offering incentives, from free pools to flat-screen TVs. Then, as unsold units collect, they move merchandise with huge discounts.
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>Builders also pitch in when potential customers are having trouble unloading their current home. A typical example is the help Pedro Kritselis is getting. He had to sell his house to afford to buy a new one in Bristow, Va. But the market is so soft that he couldn't get the price he needed, so he told the builder he'd have to walk away. To keep the sale, the developer shaved $25,000 from the price of the new house. That enabled Kritselis to sell his house for $25,000 less and still afford the new home.
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>One northern Virginia realtor is doing good business assisting homebuyers who need to sell a house to buy a new one. Ashley Leigh, among the region's most successful independent brokers, offers the following deal: If he can't sell the old house in 120 days, he'll buy it himself at a fixed price. Leigh is trumpeting the guarantee in an ad that appears on area billboards and grocery carts at the local Safeway.
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>These days his services are a godsend to developers. When they get customers who want to buy but need a minimum price for their existing house, the builders call Leigh. In return, he typically gets a 3 percent commission from the developer on the new sale and an exclusive listing on the old house that gives him a minimum of 3 percent on that sale.
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>So far he has granted over 100 guarantees and been forced to buy ten houses himself. Even when he sells them at a small loss, he still makes money overall. "I have the cushion of the commission on both ends," he says. "On houses priced $600,000 or more, I make the guarantee less than today's market price, because I'm pretty sure prices will be lower when I sell."
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>Most homeowners don't have to sell; the new, lower prices will be set by those who have to bail out. They include not just investors but also owners who stretched their finances to buy a house. This year, no less than 22 percent of Americans' $8.7 trillion in mortgages will reset rates - and the extra burden will be big.
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>A typical three-year ARM will go from 3.6 percent to 5.6 percent, forcing a borrower with a $500,000 mortgage to pay an extra $800 a month in interest. Delinquencies are already rising rapidly. Since early 2005, delinquency rates have jumped almost 14 percent, to 2.5 percent for prime mortgage loans.
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>"The banks will be forced to take back a lot of properties and sell them for the amount of the loan," says Mark Zandi of Moody's Economy.com. "That will add to the already huge supply on the market."
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>As painful as it will be for many people, the looming correction may turn out to be welcome news for house-hungry Americans. Young couples now priced out of the market will once again be able to buy a ranch or colonial without forking over half their income for mortgage payments. Growing families will be able to trade up for more living space without raiding the kids' college funds.
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>Lauris Lambergs and his wife, Ginta, want to move from a condo in South Boston to a single family home. But until recently they were appalled at the exorbitant prices. Suddenly the power is shifting to the shoppers, and the Lambergs love it.
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>"Up until last summer, going back five years, it was a ridiculous seller's market," says Lauris. "Now the buyers have some leverage." The Lambergs relish spending Sundays house hunting. "When we go to open houses, we're the only ones all day!" exults Lauris.
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>It's the bright side of our gloomy outlook: The bargains are coming.
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